Validating Expected Possession Value Against Expert Coach Assessments of Passing Intelligence in Elite Youth Ice Hockey

Abstract

The quantitative evaluation of passing-related game intelligence in ice hockey remains methodologically underdeveloped. This study examined the convergent validity of Expected Possession Value (EPV) based passing metrics against structured expert coach assessments of passing intelligence in elite youth ice hockey. Data were collected from 120 male players across 12 clubs competing in the Finnish U20 SM-sarja during the 2025–26 season. Coach assessments were obtained via a three-item structured rating instrument demonstrating excellent internal consistency (α = .950) and good-to-excellent inter-rater reliability (ICC = .852). EPV-based passing metrics showed moderate convergent validity (r = .40-.44) with coach assessments across the full sample, consistently outperforming traditional passing metrics such as pass completion percentage. Positional analyses revealed substantially stronger associations for defensemen (EPV Passes+ / 60, r = .70) than for forwards (r = .39). The findings support EPV as a theoretically grounded operationalisation of passing intelligence and highlight player position as a meaningful moderator of metric validity.