NHL Home-Ice Offensive Advantage and the Power Play: Exploring Differences Among Game Contexts

Abstract

This study investigates the home-ice offensive advantage in the National Hockey League (NHL) across game contexts. Using four seasons (2021-2025) of NHL play-by-play data, we estimate home and away team offensive production during even strength and one-man power plays. Additionally, we model power play success as a function of home status and offensive production. Wilcoxon rank-sum and Mann-Whitney U tests show the home team has a significantly higher Corsi rate, Fenwick rate, xG rate, and average xG per shot compared to the away team during even strength stints and in comparison of one-man power plays. Further tests reveal that the home-ice advantage is disproportionately concentrated during the power play. After controlling for shot quantity and quality, home teams maintain roughly 10% higher odds of power play success. Home teams produce 4.27% more Corsi during the power play compared to 2.02% more during even strength and 3.88-3.91% higher average xG per shot compared to 1.55-2.76%.