Score and Venue Adjustment on Transition Data in Hockey

Abstract

Are zone exits and entries influenced by score and venue the same way shots and goals are? Using our proprietary database of over 120,000 transition events, we analyzed how score and venue can impact how much you control your transitions and your success percentage. Playing at home or on the road does not seem to have much impact overall, especially compared to the influence the score of the game has. Trailing teams appear to be able to make more controlled zone exits, with greater success, probably due to a lesser pressure. On the other hand, leading teams tend to dump the puck out of their defensive zone more often. A trailing team would also try more zone entries but the split between controlled and dump attempts surprisingly remains stable, contradicting a common idea that defenses make it harder to enter the offensive zone when protecting a lead. The “play a simple game on the road” mantra, with less controlled transitions, does not seem to hold either, when looking at the data.