Towards a Common Standard for Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) studies allow us todetermine whether a model is fit for a particular purpose,as well as the operational domain in which it can be used.Standardising the UQ analysis setup and result summaryenables the iterative composition of UQ information, whichis a crucial step in evaluating model credibility. In thispaper, we present an initial attempt to specify UQinformation as a cross-layer standard for Modelica-, FMI-,and SSP-based workflows subject to two essentialrestrictions: (a) uncertainties can only be described interms of parameters, and (b) analysis is limited to forwarduncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis ofnonlinear models. More analysis features are planned forthe future. The approach is illustrated using both a simpleexample and an industrial use case.