On Uncertainty Analysis of the Rate Controlled Production (RCP) Model
Keywords:AICV performance, RCP model, Bayesian inference, parameter estimation, MCMC, Stan
AbstractRate controlled production (RCP) model is used to simulate and investigate the performance of the oil wells which are completed by autonomous inflow control devices. In order to quantify the performance of the RCP model, a dimensionless version of the model is considered, and its parameters are estimated. We demonstrate how the model and the measurement uncertainties can be quantified within the Bayesian statistical inference framework. In this relation, Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) is used to draw samples from the joint posterior probability distribution. We demonstrate that at the calibration step the modified model is able to capture the variations in the measurements. However, the cross- validation with the new data has revealed that the modified model tends to overpredict the pressure drop. This inadequacy cannot be explained by the measurement noise or the uncertainty in the estimated parameters. These results also imply that the original RCP model needs revision.
H. Aakre, B. Moldestad, B. Werswick, and V. Mathiesen. Autonomous Inflow Control Valve for Heavy and Extra-Heavy Oil. In Proceedings- SPE Heavy and Extra Heavy Oil Conference. - Latin America, Medellín, Colombia, 2014. doi: 10.2118/169233-MS.
H. Aakre, V. Mathiesen, and B. Moldestad. Performance of CO2 flooding in a heterogeneous oil reservoir using autonomous inflow control. Journal of petroleum science & engineering,167:654-663, 2018.
M. Halvorsen, M. Madsen, Mo. M. Vikøren, I. Mohd Ismail, and A. Green. Enhanced Oil Recovery on Troll Field by implementing Autonomous Inflow Control Device. In Proceedings- SPE Bergen One Day Seminar. Bergen, Norway, 2016. doi: 10.2118/169233-MS
J. Kruschke. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial with R, JAGS and Stan. Elsevier Inc, Bloomington, USA, 2011.
K. Langaas, O. Urazovskaya, N. Gueze, E. Jeurissen. Attic Oil Recovery in the Alvheim Field. In Proceedings-SPE Norway Subsurface Conference, Virtual. -Bergen, Norway, 2020. doi: 10.2118/169233-MS
V. Mathiesen, B. Werswick, H. Aakre, and G. Elseth. The Autonomous RCP Valve – New Technology for Inflow Control in Horizontal wells. In Proceedings-SPE Offshore Europe Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, Aberdeen, 2011. doi: 10.2118/169233-MS
V. Mathiesen, B. Werswick, and H. Aakre. The Next Generation Inflow Control the Next Step to Increase Oil Recovery on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. In Proceedings - SPE Bergen one day seminar,2 April. - Bergen, Norway, 2014. doi: 10.2118/169233-MS
I. Mohd Ismail, N. A. Che Sidik, F. Syarani wahi, G. Lin Tan, T. Focht, and F. Hillis. Increased Oil Production in Super Thin Oil Rim Using the Application of Autonomous Inflow Control Devices. In Proceedings - SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Dallas, Texas, 2018. doi: 10.2118/191590-MS
A. Moradi and B. Moldestad. A Proposed Method for Simulation of Rate-Controlled Production Valves for Reduced Water Cut. SPE Prod & Oper. 36(03): 669–684, 2021. doi: 10.2118/205377-PA
Stan development team Stan Reference Manual [Online]. -. - 2.27.2019. URL: https://mc-stan.org/docs/2_27/reference-manual/index.html
S. Taghavi, H. Aakre, S. Swaffield, and B.R. Brough. Verification of Autonomous Inflow Control Valve Flow Performance Within Heavy Oil-SAGD Thermal Flow Loop. In Proceedings - SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition. - Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 2019. doi: 10.2118/196216-MS
B.A. Voll, I. Mohd Ismail, and I. Oguche. Sustaining Production by Limiting Water Cut and Gas Break Through with Autonomous Inflow Control Technology. In Proceedings - SPE Russian Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Technical Conference and Exhibition. - Moscow, Russia,2014. doi: 10.2118/171149-MS
Copyright (c) 2022 Soheila Taghavi, Ali Ghaderi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.