Covid-19 Models and Model Fitting


  • Bernt Lie



COVID-19 models, deterministic models, model fitting, control relevance


The paper discusses how to use cumulative confirmed infected numbers to find basic infection parameters. Next, an extension of the SEIR model, the SEICUR model from the literature (a renaming of the SEIRU model) is introduced, with details of how to compute the full set of model parameters, as well as the reproduction number R. A discussion is given of how the infection rate parameter relates to mitigation policy and various natural variations. Based on a simple mitigation model, an equivalent mitigation policy is found for Italy, Spain, and Norway. An indication of how to use feedback control theory to develop mitigation policy planning is given.


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