Future Potential Impact of Wind Energy in Sweden’s bidding area SE3

Abstract

This research addresses the potential for increasing wind power in Sweden’s bidding area SE3. Sweden currently faces an energy imbalance, with larger production in the north and high demand in the south. Four bidding areas were introduced to incentivize energy production in the south. SE3, the largest bidding area, represents 60% of total demand. Using Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), historic data analysis from 2007 to 2022 is forecasted to a medium long-term future of 2035. Forecasting the observed trends reveals a potential supply deficit even under minimum demand growth scenarios made in literature. Closure of nuclear plants contributes to the shortfall, and the increasing trend in solar and wind power falls short. To study the impact wind power can have, the monthly wind patterns are analyzed, and used to calculate the power potential of different turbine capacities. Offshore areas show the highest potential for increasing wind power capacity in SE3. Economic factors, like payback time, are considered. The research concludes that there is technically and economically viable potential for wind power capacity to address the demand-supply gap by 2035. However, it depends on permitted areas, excluding built areas, UNESCO sites, and fishing routes. Future research should further explore these restrictions and address the seasonal variability in wind power to improve the understanding of the potential for wind power in the SE3 bidding area.